TMP Online

TMP columnist, Lola Adesioye, presently stationed in New York, reports on the race to win the Democratic Presidential nomination. 

Last week I went to see Barack Obama in action at a rally in Washington Square Park in New York City. I was impressed at the diversity of the crowd: 25,000 students, professionals, young, old, white and black came out to see him. Although part of me had expected to see an overwhelmingly black crowd, the racial diversity of his supporters showed that he is being judged on the strength of his policies as opposed to just the colour of his skin.

Although Obama was good I have to admit I wasn’t entirely convinced. He was affable, friendly, down-to-earth. Most importantly, he made some excellent points and some important pledges, but I just wasn’t roused. On an emotional level, I would love for America to have a black president. However, on a rational level, I am not sure if I could see Obama as leader of the US at this point in time.

Whilst I agreed with his opinions on the war in Iraq and his pledge to introduce a long-overdue nationalized healthcare system, I felt that he was somewhat over-optimistic in promising to bring in the new healthcare system within his first term and pulling American troops out of Iraq as soon as he got into office. These are all things that appeal to voters’ emotions, but their realization in practical terms is a different matter.

New York is a Hilary Clinton stronghold and by calling a rally there, Obama was making a bold statement by stepping on Clinton territory. Whilst it gained him some good editorial coverage it does not appear, however, to have shaken Hilary’s grip on Democrat votes.

Polls show that Obama is way behind Hilary Clinton. According to a recent Gallup poll, 53% of Americans said they would vote for Clinton whilst only 20% would vote for Obama. It appears that Clinton has a firm hold on the Democratic vote, and each speech and appearance just seems to tighten that grip.

At the rally, Obama hit back at critics that have labelled him inexperienced. He countered the accusations by saying that he has plenty of experience, but to his credit he is just not yet jaded by the Washington political machine. It’s a clever way of turning the charges of inexperience around, but the undeniable fact is that Hilary Clinton is well-versed in the game of American politics. She is not only strong headed and extremely articulate but very, very knowledgeable about what it means to run the country. In Obama’s defence though, George Bush’s inexperience (he had only been governor of Texas before winning the 2000 election) did not stop him from becoming president.

What about the black vote? Surely that should be in Obama’s favour? Well, it would be easy to believe that by virtue of being an African-American, Obama is more likely to get the African-American Democrat vote. However, to believe this would be an over-simplification of other factors at play in this race for the Democratic candidacy.

For example Hilary’s husband, former president Bill, was – and remains – extremely popular with African-Americans. His office is even based in Harlem. African-Americans still feel a strong connection with Bill Clinton and his family. Their support and loyalty also extends to Hilary who is seen as being comfortable in dealing with the African-American community. According to Clinton’s chief strategist, she is seen by African-Americans as a ‘champion for their issues’.

In fact, polls taken by CBS and the Washington Post in June of this year showed that Hilary Clinton had a significant lead over Barack Obama within the African-American votership, over 90% of whom vote Democrat. It was also said at the time that many African-Americans felt they did not identify with the college-educated Obama.

Ultimately, what will be the defining factor is who the voters feel is the best Democratic representative to run for presidency. All Americans, African-Americans included, are concerned about the war, terrorism, healthcare, about how the president will respond in times of crisis (such as with Hurricane Katrina) and will elect the person who they think can best tackle those issues.

This is not a matter of race or gender. Nor should it be. What’s for sure is that Americans want a change, and they will choose someone who will provide that. Many have said that it would be good to see Hilary as president and Obama as Vice President. I believe that would be the ideal situation… but with 3 months to go, let’s see how it pans out!