TMP Online

Jon Trickett MP, Chair of the Compass Group of MPs and Labour MP for Hemsworth, explains how Labour’s core constituencies, including ethnic minority groups, have defected since 1997 and the scale of the electoral task Labour faces as it seeks a fourth term under a new leader.

There is much talk about the imminent departure of Tony Blair and whether a new leader can gain a stunning fourth election victory for Labour.

Some leading politicians and media pundits suggest a strategy which might be summarised as “Blairism without Blair”. But such a tactic would lead back to a politics of the past, rooted in the 1980s and 1990s.

New analysis shows that a simple change of leader will not be enough to win. The electoral coalition that brought New Labour to power in 1997 has unravelled. A change of direction, based on an understanding of Britain as it is now, is needed to build a new basis for support.

New Labour ministers cling to the rhetoric that only the politics of unremitting New Labour, based on an assessment of Britain in the 1990s, will keep the party in power; but the facts do not back this up.

The truth is that the 1997 New Labour formula did not win the last election. Careful analysis of the last two election results reveals that the 1997 coalition had begun to disintegrate by 2001 and ceased to exist by 2005. It was only lucky for us that there has, until now, been no appetite in the country for the Tory alternative.

Over the last decade around 15 million people identified themselves with Labour in opinion polls. Of these, 14m voted for New Labour in 1997. By 2005 less than 10m of those people could bring themselves to vote for the party. Another five million natural Labour supporters, people who said they were Labour, either stayed at home or voted for (largely non-Tory) political alternatives. New Labour won in 2005 because of an even more disastrous performance by the Tory party which managed to poll even fewer votes than it had in 1997.

Examination of those Labour identifiers who voted for the party in 2005 reveals even more worrying developments. Less than half (45%) said they were actually enthused by Labour’s policies and over half (53%) said they wanted to see Labour punished with a reduced majority. Those who stayed true to New Labour in 2005 did so because they wanted to stop the Tories and saw no other political alternative. Read the rest of this entry »